About

Ana Paula Pellegrino is a Ph.D. Candidate at the Department of Government at Georgetown University. A Brazilian national, she holds a BA and an MA in International Relations and an MA in Data Science from the Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio).

She combines quantitative and qualitative data and methods to study criminal and political violence, with a particular interest in Latin America. Her research agenda includes projects on state and non-state armed actors, including police and criminal groups; micro-dynamics of violence; as well as war outcomes. In addition to support from Georgetown University, her research is supported by Fundação Estudar’s Leaders program, the Harry Frank Guggenheim Foundation’s Emerging Scholars program, the US Institute of Peace and Minerva Research Initiative’s Peace Scholar Fellowship.

Outside of academia, Ana Paula has worked in Brazilian civil society organizations conducting research and advocacy, developing technology and spearheading philanthropic strategies in organizations such as the Igarapé Institute, ImpulsoGov and the República Institute. She also organizes the Violence, Instability and Peace Workshop, a feedback-focused virtual seminar series established in 2022.

Research

Dissertation Project: The Warrior’s Paradox: The Rise of Parapolice Groups in Brazil (in progress)

This book-length dissertation project explores armed criminal group formation and interaction with police in Brazil. I conduct a cross-case comparison between Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo from the 1980s to 2000s, tracing the emergence of armed criminal groups and police institutional development. I have conducted over 2 years of fieldwork, completing dozens of elite interviews, and collecting thousands of administrative records.

Peer-Reviewed Publications

Bullock, J. Pellegrino, A. P., 2022. How do Covid-19 stay-at-home restrictions affect crime? Evidence from Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. EconomiA, v.22 n.3. [op-ed]

Working Papers

Killings of police officers

What happens when a police officer is killed? In this project, I analyze how police officers deaths in Rio de Janeiro impact police use of lethal violence in the following days. I find that police become more deadly, albeit not more active. Such effect is shaped by police officer schedules and local rememberance practices. [Working paper upon request] - Presented at APSA 2023 and ISA 2024 (Under Review)

International Wars, National Foes

(with Laia Balcells and Matthew Simonson) Can international armed conflicts exacerbate existing tensions in other regions? How do countries with a history of violence respond to armed conflicts in distant parts of the world? International wars that imply changes in international norms could increase fear of internal conflict resumption. We examine these questions with a survey experiment conducted in Bosnia & Herzegovina and Serbia, where respondents were exposed to news headlines about either a) the ongoing Russia-Ukraine War, b) the ongoing Israel-Gaza War, or c) a placebo. While the treatments affected respondents’ emotions, contrary to our pre-registered hypotheses, we find that exposure to news of these conflicts does not alter respondent’s expectations of future violence, nor does it significantly impact the salience of their various identities. Additionally, attitudes toward neighboring ethnic groups and policy preferences, as well as expectations of future violence, remained largely unchanged by either treatment. [Pre-analysis Plan] Presented at APSA 2024

Armed Groups and Public Support for Peace

(with Lesley-Ann Daniels and Laia Balcells) What makes the public see armed groups as acceptable partners for peace instead of targets of law enforcement or military action? We examine legitimacy as an important but underexplored factor in determining when the public accepts peace negotiations with an armed group and on what settlement terms. We unpack legitimacy into motivational, material and moral dimensions, which shape public perceptions through compliance with the social contract, institutional recognition, and ethical appraisal. A group’s legitimacy is informed by different characteristics and behaviors. We test this argument in a conjoint experiment embedded in a unique online survey of 2,100 respondents in Colombia. The findings will help inform public attitudes to negotiations with armed actors, which can help create a more accepted peace. [Pre-analysis Plan]. Presented at ISA 2024

Teaching

Georgetown University, Teaching Assistant

GOVT 040 - Comparative Political Systems / Introductory comparative politics undergraduate seminar, Professor Langenbacher, Fall 2020;
GOVT 702 - Quantitative Methods II / Ph.D method sequence, Professor M Bailey, Spring 2021 & Spring 2022.

Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro, Minicourse Instructor

Quantitative Methods for the Social Sciences, Spring 2024.
Civil Society Diplomacy. Fall, 2017 and Spring, 2018. Best-evaluated minicourse in 2017.

Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro, Teaching Assistant

Theoretical Foundations of International Relations II / Professor C F P D S Gama. Fall, 2013
Violence and International Relations / Professor M Herz. Spring, 2014.

CV

Please find my CV here.

Contact

You may reach me at ap1631@georgetown.edu.